Microsoft Quantum (topological)

Topological · Founded 2005 · Redmond, WA · Public (MSFT)

Bets on topological qubits (Majorana zero modes) as the path to scalable FTQC. Twenty years of research, multiple high-profile retractions (Kouwenhoven et al. 2018 Nature paper retracted 2021), and finally the Majorana 1 chip announced February 2025. The Majorana 1 announcement remains controversial — the underlying physics claims have not been independently replicated.

Delivered

Late

Missed

Softened

Pending

Delivery rate (excluding pending): 52%

Our verdict

Microsoft has the most aggressive technical bet in QC (topological qubits) and the most checkered execution history (the 2021 Majorana retraction). The Feb 2025 Majorana 1 announcement is the make-or-break event for the topological program; independent replication is the standard that must be met. Side bets on logical qubits (Atom Computing partnership) and software (Q#, Azure Quantum) have shipped reliably. If Majorana works, Microsoft leapfrogs everyone; if it doesn't, twenty years of investment.

Claims by target year

Target: 2020 · Announced 2017

Demonstrate isolated Majorana zero modes

Missed

Outcome: Kouwenhoven et al. 2018 Nature paper claiming Majorana zero modes was retracted in 2021 due to data-selection issues. Repeated experiments through 2022-2024 produced inconclusive results.

Claim source ↗ Outcome source ↗

Target: 2025 · Announced 2017

Topological qubit demonstration

Delivered (late)

Outcome: Majorana 1 chip announced February 2025 — claimed first topological qubit. The underlying topological-gap-protocol physics remains debated in the community; independent replication has not occurred as of mid-2026.

Claim source ↗

Target: 2025 · Announced 2017