Independent accountability
Vendor Roadmap Tracker
Every dated roadmap promise from every major quantum-computing vendor — and what actually shipped. We log each claim's primary source, mark whether it was delivered, delivered late, missed, softened, or still pending. The page IBM, Google, and Quantinuum cannot publish about each other.
- Vendors tracked
- 12
- Total claims
- 92
- Delivered
- 47
- Missed
- 8
- Softened
- 8
- Last verified
- 2026-05-24
Why this page exists
Every quantum vendor publishes a roadmap. None publish a comparison of their roadmap accuracy against competitors'. We do, because we don't sell hardware. Every claim links to its primary source; outcomes link to verifiable releases or third-party challenges. More on editorial independence →
Leaderboard
Sorted by delivery rate (delivered + 0.6×late) ÷ past-due claims. Pending milestones are excluded — they haven't had a chance to slip yet.
| Vendor | Modality | Delivered | Late | Missed | Softened | Pending | Delivery rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantinuum Founded 2021 · Broomfield, CO / Cambridge, UK | Trapped-ion | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 100% |
| PsiQuantum Founded 2015 · Palo Alto, CA | Photonic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 100% |
| Atom Computing Founded 2018 · Berkeley, CA / Boulder, CO | Neutral-atom | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 100% |
| QuEra Computing Founded 2018 · Boston, MA | Neutral-atom | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 100% |
| Pasqal Founded 2019 · Massy, France | Neutral-atom | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 100% |
| Xanadu Founded 2016 · Toronto, Canada | Photonic | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 80% |
| IBM Quantum Founded 2016 · Yorktown Heights, NY | Superconducting | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 73% |
| Google Quantum AI Founded 2012 · Santa Barbara, CA | Superconducting | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 72% |
| IonQ Founded 2015 · College Park, MD | Trapped-ion | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 60% |
| D-Wave Founded 1999 · Burnaby, BC, Canada | Annealing | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 57% |
| Microsoft Quantum (topological) Founded 2005 · Redmond, WA | Topological | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 52% |
| Rigetti Computing Founded 2013 · Berkeley, CA | Superconducting | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 33% |
Vendor summaries
Trapped-ion
Quantinuum
Honeywell Quantum Solutions + Cambridge Quantum, merged 2021. The most consistent technical-delivery story in the industry: highest 2-qubit gate fidelity on commercial hardware (Helios: 8×10⁻⁴), all-to-all connectivity, and real logical-qubit demonstrations. Marketing is quieter than IBM/Google, but the numbers are the strongest.
8 claims tracked · last verified 2026-05-24
Photonic
PsiQuantum
Bet entirely on photonic measurement-based quantum computing at ~1M qubit scale, skipping the NISQ era. Massive capital raise ($1B+ public commitments) and large public-sector contracts in Australia (Brisbane), US (Chicago), UK. No public hardware demonstrations — by design. Either delivers the most consequential moonshot in QC or doesn't.
6 claims tracked · last verified 2026-05-24
Neutral-atom
Atom Computing
Neutral-atom (strontium) systems with focus on high-qubit-count scaling. Phoenix: 1,180 qubits announced late 2023, first system to publicly exceed 1,000 qubits. Slower on gate-fidelity milestones than trapped-ion competitors; faster on raw qubit count.
5 claims tracked · last verified 2026-05-24
Neutral-atom
QuEra Computing
MIT/Harvard spin-out (Lukin, Vuletic). Rubidium-based analog and digital neutral-atom systems. The 2024 'Lukin paper' (Nature, Bluvstein et al.) demonstrated 48 logical qubits — at the time the most logical qubits ever entangled. Slightly behind Atom Computing on raw count, ahead on logical-qubit demonstrations.
6 claims tracked · last verified 2026-05-24
Neutral-atom
Pasqal
French neutral-atom company (Browaeys, Lahaye). 1,024-qubit Orion system. Strong European public-sector positioning (GENCI partnerships, Jülich installations). Less emphasis on logical-qubit demonstrations to date; more focus on hardware deployments at HPC centers.
5 claims tracked · last verified 2026-05-24
Photonic
Xanadu
Photonic quantum computing with squeezed-light/Gaussian boson sampling (Borealis) and continuous-variable approach. Strong PennyLane open-source ecosystem (used heavily in academia). Less aggressive on commercial-system timelines than PsiQuantum; more open-source-software-focused.
7 claims tracked · last verified 2026-05-24
Superconducting
IBM Quantum
The most-published roadmap in the industry. IBM commits publicly to dated targets and updates the roadmap yearly. Mostly hits qubit-count targets; error-correction milestones have slipped. The Heron and Nighthawk generations represent real progress on 2-qubit error.
13 claims tracked · last verified 2026-05-24
Superconducting
Google Quantum AI
Quieter roadmap than IBM but milestone delivery has been substantive: Sycamore (2019), Willow (2024). Targets long-term FTQC by ~2030. Marketing language sometimes overstates ('quantum supremacy', 'below threshold') but the underlying experiments are real.
8 claims tracked · last verified 2026-05-24
Trapped-ion
IonQ
Public company (NYSE: IONQ). Acquired Oxford Ionics in 2025 to gain microfabricated-trap technology. Achieved 1×10⁻⁴ 2-qubit gate error on Tempo (the lowest on any commercial system). Roadmap is investor-facing and ambitious — qubit-count claims have been criticized for using 'algorithmic qubits' rather than physical-qubit counts.
9 claims tracked · last verified 2026-05-24
Annealing
D-Wave
The oldest quantum vendor and the only one focused exclusively on quantum annealing (with a gate-model add-on announced 2021). Long-standing controversy on quantum-advantage claims. Advantage2 ships 4,400 qubits — more than any gate-model system — but the qubits implement Ising-Hamiltonian-minimization, not universal computation.
8 claims tracked · last verified 2026-05-24
Topological
Microsoft Quantum (topological)
Bets on topological qubits (Majorana zero modes) as the path to scalable FTQC. Twenty years of research, multiple high-profile retractions (Kouwenhoven et al. 2018 Nature paper retracted 2021), and finally the Majorana 1 chip announced February 2025. The Majorana 1 announcement remains controversial — the underlying physics claims have not been independently replicated.
8 claims tracked · last verified 2026-05-24
Superconducting
Rigetti Computing
Early superconducting-quantum company (NASDAQ: RGTI). Has slipped on most ambitious dates. Differentiator was the multi-chip Ankaa architecture; 2024-2025 has been a rebuilding phase after revenue and timeline misses.
9 claims tracked · last verified 2026-05-24
Methodology
For every claim we record: the year and venue where it was announced, the deadline, the milestone description, and the outcome. Statuses:
- Delivered: shipped on or before the deadline with the claimed capability.
- Delivered (late): shipped within ≤12 months past the original deadline, or shipped with caveats that materially reduced the claim.
- Missed: deadline passed with no public demonstration of the milestone.
- Softened: vendor quietly revised the goal, dropped the milestone from later roadmaps, or materially weakened the original claim.
- Pending: deadline is still in the future.
We do not include analyst-summarized claims, conference-talk speculation, or rumored capabilities. Every entry has a primary-source URL (vendor press release, official roadmap page, peer-reviewed paper). Corrections with primary sources are welcome.
Reading the leaderboard
- Highest delivery rate: Quantinuum and Atom Computing — both have shipped every dated engineering milestone, though their roadmaps are also less ambitious than IBM's.
- Most public roadmap: IBM — by far the most legible commitment-and-update cycle.
- Highest variance: PsiQuantum and Microsoft — both bet the company on a single long-horizon hardware paradigm with limited intermediate proof points.
- Most softened claims: Rigetti and D-Wave — multiple revised dates and quietly retired capabilities.