Quantum Outpost

Vendor Roadmap Tracker

Rigetti Computing

Superconducting · Founded 2013 · Berkeley, CA · Public (RGTI)

Early superconducting-quantum company (NASDAQ: RGTI). Has slipped on most ambitious dates. Differentiator was the multi-chip Ankaa architecture; 2024-2025 has been a rebuilding phase after revenue and timeline misses.

Delivered

2

Late

1

Missed

3

Softened

2

Pending

2

Delivery rate (excluding pending): 33%

Our verdict

Rigetti is the cautionary tale on the public-market side. Multiple roadmap revisions and missed commercial-revenue targets. The recent Ankaa-3 fidelity numbers are real engineering progress; whether the company has the runway to deliver the 1,000-qubit 2028 milestone is an open question. Trust the published fidelity numbers; treat the multi-chip and revenue claims with skepticism.

Claims by target year

Target: 2020 · Announced 2019

32-qubit Aspen system with quantum advantage demonstration

Delivered (late)

Outcome: Aspen-9 (32 qubits) shipped 2021. The 'quantum advantage' framing was never substantiated.

Target: 2023 · Announced 2021

84-qubit Ankaa multi-chip system with quantum advantage by 2024

Missed

Outcome: Ankaa-2 (84 qubits) delivered in 2023, but the multi-chip target and quantum-advantage claim were not met.

Target: 2024 · Announced 2022

Improve 2-qubit gate fidelity below 1%

Delivered

Outcome: Ankaa-3 (84 qubits) achieved 99.5% median 2-qubit fidelity (5×10⁻³ error) in 2024.

Target: 2024 · Announced 2019

Commercial revenue from quantum cloud at meaningful scale

Missed

Outcome: Quarterly revenues remained <$5M through 2024-2025 — below the original commercial-revenue expectations.

Target: 2024 · Announced 2021

Quantum-advantage demonstration on a relevant workload

Missed

Outcome: No third-party-verifiable quantum-advantage demonstration shipped.

Target: 2025 · Announced 2021

336-qubit Lyra system

Softened

Outcome: Lyra was de-prioritized in 2024 roadmap revisions; the 336-qubit target moved to ≥2027.

Target: 2025 · Announced 2022

Quantum-classical hybrid HPC integrations at scale

Softened

Outcome: Partnerships with NQCC (UK) and others continue but at smaller scale than the original commercial-revenue projection.

Target: 2027 · Announced 2024

100+ qubit system with 99.7%+ 2-qubit fidelity

Pending

Target: 2028 · Announced 2024

1,000-qubit system with fault tolerance demonstration

Pending

Last verified: 2026-05-24

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